Below are the broad 2025 trends from the latest official releases, plus a pragmatic look at what 2026 could have in store for criminal defence.
England & Wales: fewer “headline” swings, but big movement underneath
The Office for National Statistics’ latest release (year ending June 2025, published 23 October 2025) suggests overall “headline crime” measured by the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) was broadly stable year-on-year – but stability hides some major reallocations of harm and workload.
Fraud is still the giant
Fraud remains the volume driver. The CSEW estimated around 4.1 million fraud incidents in the year ending June 2025, a 14% increase on the prior year, largely linked to bank and credit account fraud.
For defence lawyers, that matters because fraud’s “front end” often looks like screenshots and account trails, but its “back end” becomes complex disclosure, third-party material, and expert evidence.
Knife and serious violence: down overall, but still a priority
Police-recorded offences involving knives or sharp instruments fell 5% to 51,527 (year ending June 2025). Homicides also fell 6% to 518 – the lowest since current recording practices began in 2002/03.
There are also category shifts within violence: robbery overall dipped slightly, but robbery of business property rose sharply (even while robbery of personal property fell).
Retail crime is a major 2025 story
Shoplifting has become one of the clearest “pressure points” in police recorded crime: shoplifting offences rose 13% to 529,994 (year ending June 2025), and theft from the person also increased.
That translates into more repeat low-value theft, more bans/orders, more linked assaults on staff, and more defendants with addiction, homelessness, or mental health vulnerability.
Some “classic” acquisitive crime continues to ease
The CSEW estimated vehicle-related theft fell 13% in the year ending June 2025.
Burglaries are widely understood to be far below historic peaks, but 2025’s most visible pressure is less “break-ins everywhere” and more retail theft, street theft, and fraud-driven harm.
London (and other big cities): violence prevention + street theft dynamics
London is often treated as a bellwether for urban crime trends. Recent reporting around the Met’s 2025 figures points to a notably low homicide rate alongside persistent concern about “everyday” thefts (especially phones) and retail crime.
Defence teams in major cities should expect that 2026 policing continues to focus on serious violence and repeat street theft, with heavy use of digital evidence (CCTV/ANPR/cell-site/social media) driving case building and disclosure disputes.
What might 2026 have in store for criminal defence lawyers
More digital-first prosecutions. Fraud growth + phone theft + serious violence enforcement means more cases built on devices, downloads, and third-party platform material – and more litigation over unused material and proportionality.
Retail theft as a steady drumbeat. High shoplifting volumes are likely to keep feeding both Magistrates’ Courts and Crown Court linked matters (breach, assault, organised theft).
Knife crime stays a political priority even if totals soften. Expect continued emphasis on stop/search, weapon-enabled robbery tracking, and targeted operations.
Sentencing and custody pressures keep rising. MoJ statistics for the year ending June 2025 show immediate custody sentencing continuing to increase, the highest since 2018 – a context likely to influence plea strategy and mitigation planning in 2026.
Stay on the pulse with your CLSA membership for the latest developments.
